Эффект хлыста

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[[Файл:Bullwhip effect.png|thumb|Иллюстрация эффекта хлыста: The ultimate customer places an order (whip) and order fluctuations build up upstream the [[supply chain]].]]
[[Файл:Bullwhip effect.png|thumb|Иллюстрация эффекта хлыста: The ultimate customer places an order (whip) and order fluctuations build up upstream the [[supply chain]].]]
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Эффект хлыста (или эффект подхлестывания, или эффект производности спроса, или эффект Форрестера; англ. – bullwhip effect, demand amplification, whip-saw, whiplash effect, or Forrester effect) – феномен в цепях поставок, который заключается в усилении изменчивости спроса по мере удаления от реального источника спроса в цепи поставок<ref>Lee H.L., Padmanabhan V. and Whang S. (1997) Information distortion in a supply chain: The bullwhip effect, Management Science; Apr 1997; 43, 4; p.546</ref>. Это означает, что колебания в "конце" цепи поставок (ближе к потребителю, например, на уровне розничного торговца) намного слабее по сравнению с друим "концом" цепи поставок (далеко от потребителя, например, на уровне производителя или поставщика). Двигаясь в цепи поставок от потребителя к поставщику колебания заказов усиливаются. Чем больше звеньев в цепи поставок и чем длинее [[время выполнения]] заказов, тем значительнее колебания.
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Bullwhip effect (also known as demand amplification, whip-saw, whiplash effect, or Forrester effect) refers to the phenomenon of demand variability amplification as mooving along the supply chain from point of consumption to point of origin <ref>Lee H.L., Padmanabhan V. and Whang S. (1997) Information distortion in a supply chain: The bullwhip effect, Management Science; Apr 1997; 43, 4; pg. 546</ref>. It means that variability at the "end" of supply chain (closer to consumption, eg retailer) is much less, than on the other "end", where it begins (far from consumer, eg producer or supplier). Moving along the supply chain from consumer to supplier increases the demand variability. The more supply chain members are in particular supply chain and greater [[lead time]] is, the greater demand variability would be.
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The first record on this phenomena belongs, probably, to J. Forrester <ref>Forrester J.W., (1961)  Industrial dynamics. New York: MIT Press and John Wiley & Sons.</ref> (that is why in some literature it is possible to find refers to Forrester effect, however J. Forrester never named it neither Forrester, nor bullwhip effect). The term Forrester effect used to denote what is now called demand signal processing, as Forrester was the first to demonstrate this factor through dynamo simulation. In 1997, the phenomena of bullwhip effect was popularized by Lee et al.<ref>Lee H.L., Padmanabhan V. and Whang S. (1997) The bullwhip effect in supply chains. Sloan Management Review 38(3) p93–102</ref>.
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The first record on this phenomena belongs, probably, to J. Forrester <ref>Forrester J.W., (1961)  Industrial dynamics. New York: MIT Press and John Wiley & Sons.</ref> (that is why in some literature it is possible to find refers to Forrester effect, however J. Forrester never named it neither Forrester, nor bullwhip effect). The term Forrester effect used to denote what is now called demand signal processing, as Forrester was the first to demonstrate this factor through dynamo simulation. Later, in 1997, this phenomena was popularized by Lee et al.<ref>Lee H.L., Padmanabhan V. and Whang S. (1997) The bullwhip effect in supply chains. Sloan Management Review 38(3) p93–102</ref>.
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Bullwhip effect has a very negative impact on supply chain efficiency. It leads to excessive stock inventories, increased production costs and overheads, potential quality distortions, worse customer support, foregone sales, increased logistics costs and so on.  
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Bullwhip effect has a very negative impact on supply chain efficiency. The bullwhip effect leads to excessive stock inventories, increased production costs and overheads, potential quality distortions, worse customer support, foregone sales, increased logistics costs and so on.
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==Causes and Consequences of the Bullwhip Effect==
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==Causes and Consequenses of the Bullwhip Effect==
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Lee et al.<ref>Lee H.L., Padmanabhan V. and Whang S. (1997) The bullwhip effect in supply chains. Sloan Management Review 38(3) p93–102</ref> identified four major causes of the bullwhip effect:  
Lee et al.<ref>Lee H.L., Padmanabhan V. and Whang S. (1997) The bullwhip effect in supply chains. Sloan Management Review 38(3) p93–102</ref> identified four major causes of the bullwhip effect:  
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*'''Demand forecast updating.''' Forecasting and production plans are often based on the order history from company's immediate customer. This immediate customer, however, rarely make exactly the same orders in short period of time as it received from its own immediate customer due to various reasons, including sales expectations, risk aversion, personal factors, production specifics, etc. As soon as manager see the change in downstream orders, he or she readjusts its own plans, however this order might not (and often not) reflect real demand situation. As a result, each member of supply chain makes a little bit different order from what it recieved and, finally, the supplier recieves the order which is totally diferent from real market dynamics. This situation is very common, because if lead time is more, than 0 (and it is 0 only in electronic goods sales), it is not uncommon to have safety stocks. The higher lead times, the bigger safety stocks. These safety stocks on one hand are the cause of inefficiency In supply chain, because they require extra operation budget, and on the other hand, they increase the bullwhip effect itself.  
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*'''Demand forecast updating.''' Forecasting and production plans are often based on the order history from company's immediate customer. This immediate customer, however, rarely make exactly the same orders in short period of time as it received from its own immediate customer due to various reasons, including sales expectations, risk aversion, personal factors, production specifics, etc. As soon as manager see the change in downstream orders, he or she readjusts its own plans, however this order might not (and often not) reflect real demand situation. As a result, each member of supply chain makes a little bit different order from what it received and, finally, the supplier receives the order which is totally different from real market dynamics. This situation is very common, because if lead time is more, than 0 (and it is 0 only in electronic goods sales), it is not uncommon to have safety stocks. The higher lead times, the bigger safety stocks. These safety stocks on one hand are the cause of inefficiency In supply chain, because they require extra operation budget, and on the other hand, they increase the bullwhip effect itself.  
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*'''Order batching.'''  Orders usually accumulated in batches: periodic (daily, weekly, monthly, etc.) or push. Batches also increase the bullwhip effect. The reason for batches is different: from order processing costs (how much does the company spend on managing the orders) to transportation issues. Sometimes this effect is refered as Burbidge effect<ref>Burbidge J.L. (1991) Period Batch Control (PBC) with GT – the Way Forward from MRP, PBCIS Annual Conference, Birmingham, UK</ref>. Burbidge points out particular problems that this effect might cause shopkeepers unless duly watched.  
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*'''Order batching.'''  Orders usually accumulated in batches: periodic (daily, weekly, monthly, etc.) or push. Batches also increase the bullwhip effect. The reason for batches is different: from order processing costs (how much does the company spend on managing the orders) to transportation issues. Sometimes this effect is referred as Burbidge effect<ref>Burbidge J.L. (1991) Period Batch Control (PBC) with GT – the Way Forward from MRP, PBCIS Annual Conference, Birmingham, UK</ref>. Burbidge points out particular problems that this effect might cause shopkeepers unless duly watched.  
*'''Price fluctuation.''' Manufacturer or retailer often make different promotion programs (special discounts, price terms, rebates, etc.). These programs cause price fluctuations. As a result, customers see different price and react differently. For more information see [[http://scm.gsom.spbu.ru/EDLP EDLP]]  
*'''Price fluctuation.''' Manufacturer or retailer often make different promotion programs (special discounts, price terms, rebates, etc.). These programs cause price fluctuations. As a result, customers see different price and react differently. For more information see [[http://scm.gsom.spbu.ru/EDLP EDLP]]  
*'''Rationing and shortage gaming.''' If producer is not able to fulfill the excessive demand in short period of time, and retailer (wholesaler or distributor) know about it, they will act to increase the orders to get at least something. For example, if retailer really needs 100 pieces of product and it knows that producer will fulfill only about 50% of the order, it will order 200. However, very often, 200 pieces is “the real picture” for the supplier and it make its strategic decisions basing on this information, however in the next period there might be only 100 (real) pieces in order from retailer. Behavioral psychology often resorts to the term bounded rationality implying sub-optimal but borderline rational decision making by actors<ref>Sterman J.D. (1989) Modeling managerial behavior: misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic
*'''Rationing and shortage gaming.''' If producer is not able to fulfill the excessive demand in short period of time, and retailer (wholesaler or distributor) know about it, they will act to increase the orders to get at least something. For example, if retailer really needs 100 pieces of product and it knows that producer will fulfill only about 50% of the order, it will order 200. However, very often, 200 pieces is “the real picture” for the supplier and it make its strategic decisions basing on this information, however in the next period there might be only 100 (real) pieces in order from retailer. Behavioral psychology often resorts to the term bounded rationality implying sub-optimal but borderline rational decision making by actors<ref>Sterman J.D. (1989) Modeling managerial behavior: misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic
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decision making experiments. Management Science, 35 (3), p321–339</ref>. Rationing and gaming are sometimes referred to as the Houlihan effect after Houlihan<ref>Houlihan J. B. (1988) International supply chains : a new approach. Management Decisions.  Vol. 26. p13-19.</ref>. This effect suggests that missed deliveries lead to higher safety stock levels and thus inflated orders. As more orders are made, the chain becomes more vulnerable to unreliable sources as reliable ones lack capacity to increase production instantly. All of this leads to bullwhip effect going up the supply chain with increasing magnitude. Houlihan described this process as the flywheel effect. Olsmats et al(1988) demonstrated this phenomenon in action in the automotive sector. Price variation describes offering goods and services to consumers at lower prices through various promotions in order to boost immediate demand assuming elasticity<ref> Olsmats C. M., Edghill J. S. and Towill D. R. (1988) Industrial dunamics model building of a s;pse-coupled production-distribution system. Engineering Costs & Production Economics, Vol. 13 Issue 4, p295-310, 16p</ref>.
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decision making experiments. Management Science, 35 (3), p321–339</ref>. Rationing and gaming are sometimes referred to as the Houlihan effect after Houlihan<ref>Houlihan J. B. (1988) International supply chains : a new approach. Management Decisions.  Vol. 26. p13-19.</ref>. This effect suggests that missed deliveries lead to higher safety stock levels and thus inflated orders. As more orders are made, the chain becomes more vulnerable to unreliable sources as reliable ones lack capacity to increase production instantly. All of this leads to bullwhip effect going up the supply chain with increasing magnitude. Houlihan described this process as the flywheel effect. Olsmats et al. (1988) demonstrated this phenomenon in action in the automotive sector. Price variation describes offering goods and services to consumers at lower prices through various promotions in order to boost immediate demand assuming elasticity<ref> Olsmats C. M., Edghill J. S. and Towill D. R. (1988) Industrial dynamics model building of a close-coupled production-distribution system. Engineering Costs & Production Economics, Vol. 13 Issue 4, p295-310, 16p</ref>.
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Some of researchers try to find origins of the bullwhip effect problems in psychology of manager, who takes a decision. Using modeling of bullwhip effect with a beer game, they prove that manager use one of two basic strategies: ‘safe harbor’ or ‘panic’, both of them have negative impact on the supply chain efficiency. However, as soon as there is a chance for negotiation, the results of simulation become much better <ref>Nienhaus J., Ziegenbein A. and  Schoensleben P. (2006) How human behavior amplifies the bullwhip effect. A study based on the beer distribution game online Production Planning & Control, Vol. 17, No. 6, 547–557</ref>.
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Particularly negative impacts of the bullwhip effect for the supply chain are:
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*'''Inefficient inventory management.''' The varying demand leads to variation in inventory levels at each tier of the supply chain. As supplier receives order, which is higher than the order on previous period, the company has to increase inventory level. On the other hand, if the order level is lower, it is not always possible to decrease inventory level in short period of time. The higher variability in demand (in orders), the higher safety stocks should be. Safety stock have trend to increase, as moving away from point of consumption.
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*'''Backlogged orders and poor service to product outlets.''' The safety stock that is required to ensure a sufficient service level increases with the variation in the demand, however, it is not always enough to fulfill excessive demand (orders). Hence, sometimes companies might face absence of goods on the shelves of the retailer.
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*'''Unpredictable production schedules.''' A variation in demand causes variation in capacity usage. During “high” period producer usually has to increase the number of shifts. During “low” period – to make extra safety stocks or leave workers without any work (both cases lead to financial losses).
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*'''High prices for raw materials because of immediate need.''' In case of emergent need of producing the order, producer often face a situation of absence of raw materials (of some of raw materials). Ordering even small part of raw materials from  supplier on emergence will cost to producer enormously high price (at least for unscheduled transportation) .
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*'''Lost revenues.''' All these leads to financial losses: extra safety stocks (means more capital employed) or missed orders (missed sales).  
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Particularly negative impacts of the bullwhip effect for the supply chain are<ref>Nienhaus J., Ziegenbein A. and  Schoensleben P. (2006) How human behaviour amplifies the bullwhip effect. A study based on the beer distribution game online Production Planning & Control,Vol. 17, No. 6, 547–557</ref>:
 
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*'''Overloaded and/or under-loaded capacities. ''' A variation in demand causes variation in capacity usage. Here companies face a dilemma. If they design their capacity according to the average demand, demand peaks will regularly lead to delivery problems. On the other hand, adjusting capacity to the maximum demand results in poorly utilised resources.
 
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*'''Variation in inventory level.''' The varying demand leads to variation in inventory levels at each tier of the supply chain. If a company delivers more than the next tier passes on, the next tier’s inventory level increases. If a company delivers less than the next tier passes on, inventory in the next tier is reduced. A high level of inventory means excessive inventory investments, while a low level of inventory puts delivery reliability at risk.
 
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*'''High level of safety stock.''' The safety stock that is required to ensure a sufficient service level increases with the variation in the demand. Thus the stronger the bullwhip effect in a supply chain is the more safety stock will be required.
 
Analyses of recent papers shows that researchers do not argue about the causes and consequences of bullwhip effect, but try to find remedies for negative impact on the supply chain performance.
Analyses of recent papers shows that researchers do not argue about the causes and consequences of bullwhip effect, but try to find remedies for negative impact on the supply chain performance.
==Example of the Bullwhip Effect==
==Example of the Bullwhip Effect==
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Usually consumption of any FMCG goods is stable. For instance, consumption of diapers by babies – is constant; consumption of bread, salt, ketchup and other food – constant, etc. Retailers very often see smooth demand with minor changes as seen on the figure.  
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Usually consumption of most FMCG goods is stable. For instance, consumption of diapers by babies – is constant; consumption of bread, salt, ketchup and other food – constant, etc. Retailers very often see smooth demand with minor fluctuations as seen on the figure below.  
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<lines size=500x200 title="Customer sales" ymin=0 ymax=25 colors=2D00B8 xlabel ylabel=5 grid=xy legend>
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<lines size=500x200 title="Customer Sales" ymin=0 ymax=25 colors=2D00B8 xlabel ylabel=5 grid=xy legend>
, Order Quantity
, Order Quantity
1,12
1,12
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Making its own orders, however, retailer take in account own old inventories, sales expectations, discounts from manufacturer or distributor, the price of transportation, order processing and other minor factors. Orders are not that smooth any more.  
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Making its own orders, however, retailer take in account own stock levels (from previous periods), sales expectations (including expectations on own advertising and promotion), discounts from manufacturer or distributor, the price of transportation, order processing and other minor factors. Orders are not that smooth any more.  
<lines size=500x200 title="Retailer's Orders to Wholesaler" ymin=0 ymax=25 colors=2D00B8 xlabel ylabel=5 grid=xy legend>
<lines size=500x200 title="Retailer's Orders to Wholesaler" ymin=0 ymax=25 colors=2D00B8 xlabel ylabel=5 grid=xy legend>
Строка 114: Строка 118:
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At the end of supply chain, orders to manufacturer are even more variable. Manufacturer now has to solve problems of extra shifts or extra safety stock to fulfill all the orders. Extra costs and order failures are obvious in this situation.  
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At the end of supply chain, orders to manufacturer are even more variable. Manufacturer now has to solve problems of extra shifts or extra safety stock to fulfill all the orders. Extra costs and order failures are very common in this situation.  
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<lines size=500x200 title="Distributor's Ordres to Manufacturer" ymin=0 ymax=25 colors=2D00B8 xlabel ylabel=5 grid=xy legend>
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<lines size=500x200 title="Distributor's Orders to Manufacturer" ymin=0 ymax=25 colors=2D00B8 xlabel ylabel=5 grid=xy legend>
, Order Quantity
, Order Quantity
1,2
1,2
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</lines>
</lines>
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The bullwhip effect has been documented as a significant problem in general <ref>Buzzell R. D., J. A. Quelch and W. J. Salmon (1990) The costly bargain of trade promotion. Harvard Business Review, 68, p141–148</ref>,<ref>Richard M. (1997) Quantifying the bullwhip effect in supply chains. Journal of Operations Management, Vol. 15 Issue 2, p89-100</ref> and in particular companies or industries:  
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The bullwhip effect has been studied well and diagnosed as a significant problem in general <ref>Buzzell R. D., J. A. Quelch and W. J. Salmon (1990) The costly bargain of trade promotion. Harvard Business Review, 68, p141–148</ref>,<ref>Richard M. (1997) Quantifying the bullwhip effect in supply chains. Journal of Operations Management, Vol. 15 Issue 2, p89-100</ref>, as well as in particular companies or industries:  
*Hi-tech industry<ref>Kelly, K. 1995. Burned by busy signals: Why Motorola ramped up production way past demand. Business Week 6 36</ref>
*Hi-tech industry<ref>Kelly, K. 1995. Burned by busy signals: Why Motorola ramped up production way past demand. Business Week 6 36</ref>
*Grocery industry<ref>Holmstrom, J. 1997. Product range management: a case study of supply chain operations in the European grocery industry. Supply Chain Management 2(3) 107–115</ref>
*Grocery industry<ref>Holmstrom, J. 1997. Product range management: a case study of supply chain operations in the European grocery industry. Supply Chain Management 2(3) 107–115</ref>
*Manufacturing sector<ref> Dooley K., Yan T., Mohan S., Gopalakrishnan M. (2010) Inventory management and the bullwhip effect during the 2007–2009 recession: evidence from the manufacturing sector. Journal of Supply Chain Management, Vol. 46 Issue 1, p12-18 </ref>
*Manufacturing sector<ref> Dooley K., Yan T., Mohan S., Gopalakrishnan M. (2010) Inventory management and the bullwhip effect during the 2007–2009 recession: evidence from the manufacturing sector. Journal of Supply Chain Management, Vol. 46 Issue 1, p12-18 </ref>
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* and other.
==Analysis of the Bullwhip Effect==
==Analysis of the Bullwhip Effect==
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The Bullwhip effect was analyzed with different methods:  
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The bullwhip effect was analyzed by various researchers with different methods:  
*Simulation approach <ref> Wangphanich P., Kara S. and Kayis B. (2010) Analysis of the bullwhip effect in multi-product, multi-stage supply chain systems-a simulation approach, International Journal of Production Research; Aug2010, Vol. 48 Issue 15, p4501-4517</ref>
*Simulation approach <ref> Wangphanich P., Kara S. and Kayis B. (2010) Analysis of the bullwhip effect in multi-product, multi-stage supply chain systems-a simulation approach, International Journal of Production Research; Aug2010, Vol. 48 Issue 15, p4501-4517</ref>
*Evolutionary least-mean-square algorithm <ref>Tseng L-T., Tseng L-F., Chen H-C. (2011) Exploration of the bullwhip effect based on the evolutionary least-mean-square algorithm, International Journal of Electronic Business Management, Vol.  9 Issue 2, p160-168 </ref>
*Evolutionary least-mean-square algorithm <ref>Tseng L-T., Tseng L-F., Chen H-C. (2011) Exploration of the bullwhip effect based on the evolutionary least-mean-square algorithm, International Journal of Electronic Business Management, Vol.  9 Issue 2, p160-168 </ref>
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==Bullwhip Effect Simulation (Beer Game)==
==Bullwhip Effect Simulation (Beer Game)==
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[[File:beergame.png|thumb|Beergame illustration. Source: Nienhaus J., Ziegenbein A. and Schoensleben P. (2006) How human behaviour amplifies the bullwhip effect. A study based on the beer distribution game online, Production Planning & Control,
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[[File:beergame.png|thumb|Beergame illustration. Source: Nienhaus J., Ziegenbein A. and Schoensleben P. (2006) How human behavior amplifies the bullwhip effect. A study based on the beer distribution game online, Production Planning & Control, Vol. 17, No. 6, p.547–557]]
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Vol. 17, No. 6, 547–557]]
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Bullwhip Effect Simulation (Beer Game, also know as beer distribution game), which was developed by the Systems Dynamics Group at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the 1960s. It demonstrates the bullwhip effect by simulating a supply chain with four tiers: the retailer, the wholesaler, the distributor or the factory. Each player takes the role (individually or in group of 2-3 players) one of the roles.
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Bullwhip Effect Simulation Game (Beer Game, also known as beer distribution game), which was developed by the Systems Dynamics Group at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the 1960s. It demonstrates the bullwhip effect by simulating a supply chain with four tiers: the retailer, the wholesaler, the distributor or the factory. It might be played in class or on-line and is very effective mean of illustrating systems thinking. By enabling managers to experience the negative impact of the bullwhip effect on supply chain performance, the beer game makes them aware of the application of countermeasures in their companies<rev> Nienhaus J., Ziegenbein A. and Schoensleben P. (2006) How human behavior amplifies the bullwhip effect. A study based on the beer distribution game online, Production Planning & Control, Vol. 17, No. 6, p.547–557</ref>.
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Each player takes the role (individually or in group of 2-3 players) one of the roles. An ultimate customer places orders at the retailer (buys beer). His demand is defined, but unknown to the participants. The ultimate demand is four units (bottles, packs of beer) during the first six periods (including “test” or “zero” period) and eight units during the following periods of the simulation. The game usually lasts for 50-70 period. It is enough to diagnose bullwhip effect. Each period represents one week. During this period participants have to make important decisions and activities in strict order:
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An ultimate customer places orders at the retailer (buys beer). His demand pattern is given, but unknown to the participants. It is four units during the first six periods and for eight units during the following periods of the simulation. The partners up the supply chain receive orders from their customers and decide - based on their current stock situation, the products in transport, which will reach their stock within the next periods, and the orders they received—how much to
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* Each player (team) receives order from their customer. For retailer it is pre-defined order (demand). For the rest of players it is orders from previous players (eg order from wholesaler for distributor).  
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order from their supplier for replenishment. This way, information on the end customer demand is passed on up the supply chain with a delay of one period of time at each tier. Material is forwarded in the other direction – down the supply chain. The material flow is delayed as well: Material has to be transported (see the trucks between tiers in figure 3) and it has to pass materials receiving. Therefore, it takes two periods until material received from a supplier can be delivered to a customer from
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* Each player (team) makes a decision of how much to order. This decision is based on received order, on backlogged orders (all orders should be accomplished), on previous orders, on inventory left in stock and other factors.  
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stock at each tier. The goal is to minimise the over-all logistics costs of the simulated supply chain. A product on stock costs
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*Each player (team) has to minimize its costs. A product on stock (safety stock) costs $0.50 per product per period. Backlogged orders costs $1.00 per product per period (penalty for out-of-stock situations). Thus participants have to take into account a trade-off between minimizing the costs of capital employed in stocks on the one hand and avoiding of out-of-stock situations, on the other hand.
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E0.5 per period (costs of capital employed). If a tier cannot deliver, this causes costs of E1 per product per period (penalty for out-of-stock situations). Thus participants have to take into account a trade-off between minimising the costs of capital employed in stocks on the one hand and avoiding of out-of-stock situations, on the other hand.
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Information flow (the information of how much to order) moves along supply chain with a delay of one week. It represents common situation in real companies. Good flow has a delay of two weeks due to transportation. Producer gets its orders from production after two weeks as well (to make it easier it is possible to say that one week is for production and one week is for quality control and packaging).  
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Some important rules to remember:  
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The beer distribution game has proved to be an effective means of illustrating systems thinking (Goodwin and Franklin 1994). By enabling managers to experience the negative impact of the bullwhip effect on supply chain performance, the beer distribution game makes them aware of the application of countermeasures in their companies. Therefore, the beer distribution game is successfully applied in many management development programmes.
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* Do not try to look for your demand before there is time to.  
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* Do not change the sequence of steps.
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Important rules:  
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* Do not mix the orders and finished products.  
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*DO NOT try to look for your demand before there is time to.  
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* It is possible to make 0 order.  
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*During first 2 rounds DO NOT start new round, or place an order, or move the inventories until the CLASS is ready for it.
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* If you missed the round, don’t try to catch-up. Make sure that all other members did it correctly.
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*DO NOT change the sequence of steps, always 1-2-3…
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*DO NOT mix the orders and finished products.  
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*If you decide not to order anything, write 0 on your post-it paper.  
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*If you missed the round, don’t try to catch-up. Make sure that all other members did it correctly.
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==Remedies for the Bullwhip Effect==
==Remedies for the Bullwhip Effect==
Lee et al. (1997) proposed a framework for supply chain initiatives to deal with the bullwhip effect: information sharing, channel alignment, operational efficiency. It was criticized for general approach and since then a lot of papers on this topic, trying to find more general or more specific solutions:  
Lee et al. (1997) proposed a framework for supply chain initiatives to deal with the bullwhip effect: information sharing, channel alignment, operational efficiency. It was criticized for general approach and since then a lot of papers on this topic, trying to find more general or more specific solutions:  
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* Ordering policy <ref>Disney S.M. and Towill D.R., (2003) On the bullwhip and inventory variance produced by an
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* Ordering policy<ref>Disney S.M. and Towill D.R., (2003) On the bullwhip and inventory variance produced by an
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ordering policy. Omega, 31 (3), 157–167</ref>, <ref>Kelle P. and Milne A. (1999) The effect of (s,S) ordering policy on the supply chain. International Journal of Production Economics, 59 (1–3), 113–122 </ref>
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ordering policy. Omega, 31 (3), 157–167</ref>,<ref>Kelle P. and Milne A. (1999) The effect of (s,S) ordering policy on the supply chain. International Journal of Production Economics, 59 (1–3), 113–122 </ref>
* Lot sizing rules <ref> Pujawan I.N. (2004) The effect of lot sizing rules on order variability. European Journal of
* Lot sizing rules <ref> Pujawan I.N. (2004) The effect of lot sizing rules on order variability. European Journal of
Operations Research, 159 (3), 617–635</ref>
Operations Research, 159 (3), 617–635</ref>
Строка 187: Строка 187:
International Journal of Production Research, 44 (9), 1821–1843</ref>
International Journal of Production Research, 44 (9), 1821–1843</ref>
* Multi-agent approach <ref> Qing Cao and Leggio K. (2008) Alleviating the bullwhip effect in supply chain management using the multi-agent approach: an empirical study. International Journal of Computer Applications in Technology, Vol. 31 Issue 3/4, p225-237</ref>
* Multi-agent approach <ref> Qing Cao and Leggio K. (2008) Alleviating the bullwhip effect in supply chain management using the multi-agent approach: an empirical study. International Journal of Computer Applications in Technology, Vol. 31 Issue 3/4, p225-237</ref>
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Information sharing is one of the most important tools for minimizing bullwhip effect. Most of contemporary tools and approaches, including [[VMI]], [[CPFR]], etc. and technical innovations, such as [[RFID]] use this principle. The importance of information in supply chains:
 +
*Helps reduce variability in supply chains
 +
*Help suppliers make better forecast
 +
*Enables the coordination system of manufacturing and distribution systems and strategies
 +
*Enables retailers to better serve their customers
 +
*Enables retailers to react and adapt to supply chain problems more rapidly
 +
*Enables lead time reductions
==References==
==References==
<references />
<references />
-
 
+
KK
[[Category:Supply Chain Strategy]]
[[Category:Supply Chain Strategy]]

Версия 20:36, 16 августа 2011

English: Bullwhip effect

Файл:Bullwhip effect.png
Иллюстрация эффекта хлыста: The ultimate customer places an order (whip) and order fluctuations build up upstream the supply chain.

Эффект хлыста (или эффект подхлестывания, или эффект производности спроса, или эффект Форрестера; англ. – bullwhip effect, demand amplification, whip-saw, whiplash effect, or Forrester effect) – феномен в цепях поставок, который заключается в усилении изменчивости спроса по мере удаления от реального источника спроса в цепи поставок[1]. Это означает, что колебания в "конце" цепи поставок (ближе к потребителю, например, на уровне розничного торговца) намного слабее по сравнению с друим "концом" цепи поставок (далеко от потребителя, например, на уровне производителя или поставщика). Двигаясь в цепи поставок от потребителя к поставщику колебания заказов усиливаются. Чем больше звеньев в цепи поставок и чем длинее время выполнения заказов, тем значительнее колебания.

The first record on this phenomena belongs, probably, to J. Forrester [2] (that is why in some literature it is possible to find refers to Forrester effect, however J. Forrester never named it neither Forrester, nor bullwhip effect). The term Forrester effect used to denote what is now called demand signal processing, as Forrester was the first to demonstrate this factor through dynamo simulation. In 1997, the phenomena of bullwhip effect was popularized by Lee et al.[3].

Bullwhip effect has a very negative impact on supply chain efficiency. It leads to excessive stock inventories, increased production costs and overheads, potential quality distortions, worse customer support, foregone sales, increased logistics costs and so on.

Содержание

Causes and Consequences of the Bullwhip Effect

Lee et al.[4] identified four major causes of the bullwhip effect:

  • Demand forecast updating. Forecasting and production plans are often based on the order history from company's immediate customer. This immediate customer, however, rarely make exactly the same orders in short period of time as it received from its own immediate customer due to various reasons, including sales expectations, risk aversion, personal factors, production specifics, etc. As soon as manager see the change in downstream orders, he or she readjusts its own plans, however this order might not (and often not) reflect real demand situation. As a result, each member of supply chain makes a little bit different order from what it received and, finally, the supplier receives the order which is totally different from real market dynamics. This situation is very common, because if lead time is more, than 0 (and it is 0 only in electronic goods sales), it is not uncommon to have safety stocks. The higher lead times, the bigger safety stocks. These safety stocks on one hand are the cause of inefficiency In supply chain, because they require extra operation budget, and on the other hand, they increase the bullwhip effect itself.
  • Order batching. Orders usually accumulated in batches: periodic (daily, weekly, monthly, etc.) or push. Batches also increase the bullwhip effect. The reason for batches is different: from order processing costs (how much does the company spend on managing the orders) to transportation issues. Sometimes this effect is referred as Burbidge effect[5]. Burbidge points out particular problems that this effect might cause shopkeepers unless duly watched.
  • Price fluctuation. Manufacturer or retailer often make different promotion programs (special discounts, price terms, rebates, etc.). These programs cause price fluctuations. As a result, customers see different price and react differently. For more information see [EDLP]
  • Rationing and shortage gaming. If producer is not able to fulfill the excessive demand in short period of time, and retailer (wholesaler or distributor) know about it, they will act to increase the orders to get at least something. For example, if retailer really needs 100 pieces of product and it knows that producer will fulfill only about 50% of the order, it will order 200. However, very often, 200 pieces is “the real picture” for the supplier and it make its strategic decisions basing on this information, however in the next period there might be only 100 (real) pieces in order from retailer. Behavioral psychology often resorts to the term bounded rationality implying sub-optimal but borderline rational decision making by actors[6]. Rationing and gaming are sometimes referred to as the Houlihan effect after Houlihan[7]. This effect suggests that missed deliveries lead to higher safety stock levels and thus inflated orders. As more orders are made, the chain becomes more vulnerable to unreliable sources as reliable ones lack capacity to increase production instantly. All of this leads to bullwhip effect going up the supply chain with increasing magnitude. Houlihan described this process as the flywheel effect. Olsmats et al. (1988) demonstrated this phenomenon in action in the automotive sector. Price variation describes offering goods and services to consumers at lower prices through various promotions in order to boost immediate demand assuming elasticity[8].

Some of researchers try to find origins of the bullwhip effect problems in psychology of manager, who takes a decision. Using modeling of bullwhip effect with a beer game, they prove that manager use one of two basic strategies: ‘safe harbor’ or ‘panic’, both of them have negative impact on the supply chain efficiency. However, as soon as there is a chance for negotiation, the results of simulation become much better [9].

Particularly negative impacts of the bullwhip effect for the supply chain are:

  • Inefficient inventory management. The varying demand leads to variation in inventory levels at each tier of the supply chain. As supplier receives order, which is higher than the order on previous period, the company has to increase inventory level. On the other hand, if the order level is lower, it is not always possible to decrease inventory level in short period of time. The higher variability in demand (in orders), the higher safety stocks should be. Safety stock have trend to increase, as moving away from point of consumption.
  • Backlogged orders and poor service to product outlets. The safety stock that is required to ensure a sufficient service level increases with the variation in the demand, however, it is not always enough to fulfill excessive demand (orders). Hence, sometimes companies might face absence of goods on the shelves of the retailer.
  • Unpredictable production schedules. A variation in demand causes variation in capacity usage. During “high” period producer usually has to increase the number of shifts. During “low” period – to make extra safety stocks or leave workers without any work (both cases lead to financial losses).
  • High prices for raw materials because of immediate need. In case of emergent need of producing the order, producer often face a situation of absence of raw materials (of some of raw materials). Ordering even small part of raw materials from supplier on emergence will cost to producer enormously high price (at least for unscheduled transportation) .
  • Lost revenues. All these leads to financial losses: extra safety stocks (means more capital employed) or missed orders (missed sales).


Analyses of recent papers shows that researchers do not argue about the causes and consequences of bullwhip effect, but try to find remedies for negative impact on the supply chain performance.

Example of the Bullwhip Effect

Usually consumption of most FMCG goods is stable. For instance, consumption of diapers by babies – is constant; consumption of bread, salt, ketchup and other food – constant, etc. Retailers very often see smooth demand with minor fluctuations as seen on the figure below.


Making its own orders, however, retailer take in account own stock levels (from previous periods), sales expectations (including expectations on own advertising and promotion), discounts from manufacturer or distributor, the price of transportation, order processing and other minor factors. Orders are not that smooth any more.


Orders from wholesaler to distributor are even more volatile due to the same reasons.


At the end of supply chain, orders to manufacturer are even more variable. Manufacturer now has to solve problems of extra shifts or extra safety stock to fulfill all the orders. Extra costs and order failures are very common in this situation.


The bullwhip effect has been studied well and diagnosed as a significant problem in general [10],[11], as well as in particular companies or industries:

  • Hi-tech industry[12]
  • Grocery industry[13]
  • Manufacturing sector[14]
  • and other.

Analysis of the Bullwhip Effect

The bullwhip effect was analyzed by various researchers with different methods:

  • Simulation approach [15]
  • Evolutionary least-mean-square algorithm [16]
  • Beer game simulation with different demand scenarios [17]
  • Multi-echelon supply chain system [18]
  • Analytical approach

Bullwhip Effect Simulation (Beer Game)

Файл:Beergame.png
Beergame illustration. Source: Nienhaus J., Ziegenbein A. and Schoensleben P. (2006) How human behavior amplifies the bullwhip effect. A study based on the beer distribution game online, Production Planning & Control, Vol. 17, No. 6, p.547–557

Bullwhip Effect Simulation Game (Beer Game, also known as beer distribution game), which was developed by the Systems Dynamics Group at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the 1960s. It demonstrates the bullwhip effect by simulating a supply chain with four tiers: the retailer, the wholesaler, the distributor or the factory. It might be played in class or on-line and is very effective mean of illustrating systems thinking. By enabling managers to experience the negative impact of the bullwhip effect on supply chain performance, the beer game makes them aware of the application of countermeasures in their companies<rev> Nienhaus J., Ziegenbein A. and Schoensleben P. (2006) How human behavior amplifies the bullwhip effect. A study based on the beer distribution game online, Production Planning & Control, Vol. 17, No. 6, p.547–557</ref>. Each player takes the role (individually or in group of 2-3 players) one of the roles. An ultimate customer places orders at the retailer (buys beer). His demand is defined, but unknown to the participants. The ultimate demand is four units (bottles, packs of beer) during the first six periods (including “test” or “zero” period) and eight units during the following periods of the simulation. The game usually lasts for 50-70 period. It is enough to diagnose bullwhip effect. Each period represents one week. During this period participants have to make important decisions and activities in strict order:

  • Each player (team) receives order from their customer. For retailer it is pre-defined order (demand). For the rest of players it is orders from previous players (eg order from wholesaler for distributor).
  • Each player (team) makes a decision of how much to order. This decision is based on received order, on backlogged orders (all orders should be accomplished), on previous orders, on inventory left in stock and other factors.
  • Each player (team) has to minimize its costs. A product on stock (safety stock) costs $0.50 per product per period. Backlogged orders costs $1.00 per product per period (penalty for out-of-stock situations). Thus participants have to take into account a trade-off between minimizing the costs of capital employed in stocks on the one hand and avoiding of out-of-stock situations, on the other hand.

Information flow (the information of how much to order) moves along supply chain with a delay of one week. It represents common situation in real companies. Good flow has a delay of two weeks due to transportation. Producer gets its orders from production after two weeks as well (to make it easier it is possible to say that one week is for production and one week is for quality control and packaging). Some important rules to remember:

  • Do not try to look for your demand before there is time to.
  • Do not change the sequence of steps.
  • Do not mix the orders and finished products.
  • It is possible to make 0 order.
  • If you missed the round, don’t try to catch-up. Make sure that all other members did it correctly.

Remedies for the Bullwhip Effect

Lee et al. (1997) proposed a framework for supply chain initiatives to deal with the bullwhip effect: information sharing, channel alignment, operational efficiency. It was criticized for general approach and since then a lot of papers on this topic, trying to find more general or more specific solutions:

Information sharing is one of the most important tools for minimizing bullwhip effect. Most of contemporary tools and approaches, including VMI, CPFR, etc. and technical innovations, such as RFID use this principle. The importance of information in supply chains:

  • Helps reduce variability in supply chains
  • Help suppliers make better forecast
  • Enables the coordination system of manufacturing and distribution systems and strategies
  • Enables retailers to better serve their customers
  • Enables retailers to react and adapt to supply chain problems more rapidly
  • Enables lead time reductions

References

  1. Lee H.L., Padmanabhan V. and Whang S. (1997) Information distortion in a supply chain: The bullwhip effect, Management Science; Apr 1997; 43, 4; p.546
  2. Forrester J.W., (1961) Industrial dynamics. New York: MIT Press and John Wiley & Sons.
  3. Lee H.L., Padmanabhan V. and Whang S. (1997) The bullwhip effect in supply chains. Sloan Management Review 38(3) p93–102
  4. Lee H.L., Padmanabhan V. and Whang S. (1997) The bullwhip effect in supply chains. Sloan Management Review 38(3) p93–102
  5. Burbidge J.L. (1991) Period Batch Control (PBC) with GT – the Way Forward from MRP, PBCIS Annual Conference, Birmingham, UK
  6. Sterman J.D. (1989) Modeling managerial behavior: misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic decision making experiments. Management Science, 35 (3), p321–339
  7. Houlihan J. B. (1988) International supply chains : a new approach. Management Decisions. Vol. 26. p13-19.
  8. Olsmats C. M., Edghill J. S. and Towill D. R. (1988) Industrial dynamics model building of a close-coupled production-distribution system. Engineering Costs & Production Economics, Vol. 13 Issue 4, p295-310, 16p
  9. Nienhaus J., Ziegenbein A. and Schoensleben P. (2006) How human behavior amplifies the bullwhip effect. A study based on the beer distribution game online Production Planning & Control, Vol. 17, No. 6, 547–557
  10. Buzzell R. D., J. A. Quelch and W. J. Salmon (1990) The costly bargain of trade promotion. Harvard Business Review, 68, p141–148
  11. Richard M. (1997) Quantifying the bullwhip effect in supply chains. Journal of Operations Management, Vol. 15 Issue 2, p89-100
  12. Kelly, K. 1995. Burned by busy signals: Why Motorola ramped up production way past demand. Business Week 6 36
  13. Holmstrom, J. 1997. Product range management: a case study of supply chain operations in the European grocery industry. Supply Chain Management 2(3) 107–115
  14. Dooley K., Yan T., Mohan S., Gopalakrishnan M. (2010) Inventory management and the bullwhip effect during the 2007–2009 recession: evidence from the manufacturing sector. Journal of Supply Chain Management, Vol. 46 Issue 1, p12-18
  15. Wangphanich P., Kara S. and Kayis B. (2010) Analysis of the bullwhip effect in multi-product, multi-stage supply chain systems-a simulation approach, International Journal of Production Research; Aug2010, Vol. 48 Issue 15, p4501-4517
  16. Tseng L-T., Tseng L-F., Chen H-C. (2011) Exploration of the bullwhip effect based on the evolutionary least-mean-square algorithm, International Journal of Electronic Business Management, Vol. 9 Issue 2, p160-168
  17. Matteo C., Chiara R., Tommaso R. and Fernanda S. (2010) Bullwhip effect and inventory oscillations analysis using the beer game model, International Journal of Production Research, Vol. 48 Issue 13, p3943-3956
  18. Xiao-Yuan, H. (2007) An H∞ control method of the bullwhip effect for a class of supply chain system. International Journal of Production Research, Vol. 45 Issue 1, p207-226
  19. Disney S.M. and Towill D.R., (2003) On the bullwhip and inventory variance produced by an ordering policy. Omega, 31 (3), 157–167
  20. Kelle P. and Milne A. (1999) The effect of (s,S) ordering policy on the supply chain. International Journal of Production Economics, 59 (1–3), 113–122
  21. Pujawan I.N. (2004) The effect of lot sizing rules on order variability. European Journal of Operations Research, 159 (3), 617–635
  22. Zhang X. (2005) Delayed demand information and dampened bullwhip effect. Operations Research Letters, 33 (3), 289–294
  23. Zhao X. and Xie J. (2002) Forecasting errors and the value of information sharing in a supply chain. International Journal of Production Research, 40 (2), 311–335
  24. Croson R. and Donohue K. (2005) Upstream versus downstream information and its impact on the bullwhip effect. System Dynamics Review, 21 (3), 249–260
  25. Ingalls R.G., Foote B.L. and Krishnamoorthy A. (2005) Reducing the bullwhip effect in supply chains with control-based forecasting. International Journal of Simulation & Process Modelling, 1–2 (1), 90–110
  26. Lin C. and Lin Y. (2006) Issues in the reduction of demand variance in the supply chain. International Journal of Production Research, 44 (9), 1821–1843
  27. Qing Cao and Leggio K. (2008) Alleviating the bullwhip effect in supply chain management using the multi-agent approach: an empirical study. International Journal of Computer Applications in Technology, Vol. 31 Issue 3/4, p225-237

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